Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk – Prediction & Match Stats

Premiership - Regular Season - 13

Heart Of Midlothian

Match Finished

08 Nov 2026 15:00

Falkirk

1X2 probabilityFrom average bookmaker odds

154%1.75

X24%3.89

222%4.24

Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh

Match centre

Heart Of Midlothian2 – 5Full timeHalf-time: 0–4

Falkirk

Match events

4'Finley Frank Barbrook
17'Owen EamesBrad Spencer
VARGoal cancelled20'
33'Jacob MurrellDeniss Meļņiks
Matthew GilliesLaurent mendy45'
Severin Sabri GuendouzYan Dhanda45'
45+2'Liam Henderson
47'Jacob MurrellEthan Ross
Severin Sabri GuendouzJosh Mcpake50'
57'Ben krauhausBrad Spencer
Leart KabashiMalachi Walcott60'
64'Finley Frank Barbrook
65'Owen Eames
68'Jacob Murrell
70'Calvin FodreyOwen Eames
Claudio Rafael Soares BragaPenalty75'
78'Calvin Fodrey
79'Deniss Meļņiks
Leart Kabashi79'
79'Ben ParkinsonJacob Murrell
79'Conor McLeodEthan Ross
79'Keelan AdamsScott Tanser
James wilsonClaudio Rafael Soares Braga84'
Jerome WilliamsPierre Landry Kabore84'
90+1'Ben Parkinson

Match statistics

Attack

2.01Expected goals (xG)2.61

16Shots14

6Shots on target7

4Corners5

Control

59%Possession41%

Discipline

11Fouls20

1Yellow cards6

3Offsides2

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Best players

8.4Player of the matchJ. MurrellFalkirk

Finley Frank Barbrook7.8
L. Henderson7.5

Lineups

Heart Of Midlothian4-2-3-1

Starting XI

1B. ReusG5.7
5J. McCartD5.7
17S. FindlayD6.2
64M. Fagan-WalcottD5.5
23J. AltenaD6.6
31Y. DhandaM6.2
78L. MendyM5.8
15J. McPakeM7.3
10Cláudio BragaM6.3
29S. KerjotaM6.0
11P. KaboreF6.6

Substitutes (9)

30R. FultonG
27A. BenjaminsenF
77A. Ba-SyF
39M. GilliesD5.6
19S. GuendouzF7.3
20L. KabashiF6.7
33F. PollockM
9J. WilliamsF6.5
21J. WilsonF6.3

Coach: W. Vrancken

Falkirk4-2-3-1

Starting XI

19S. BainG6.5
17S. TanserD6.9
5L. HendersonD7.5
15L. NeilsonD6.1
4J. McMillanD6.2
8B. SpencerM6.7
16Finley Frank BarbrookM7.8
42Owen EamesM7.2
23E. RossM6.8
21D. MeļņiksM6.8
24J. MurrellF8.4

Substitutes (9)

1N. HogarthG
2K. AdamsD6.2
14F. YeatsM
99C. FodreyM5.8
27C. McLeodM6.0
28B. KrauhausM5.9
10C. SibbaldM
7Ben ParkinsonF6.3
9R. MacIverF

Coach: J. McGlynn

Our prediction

Our predictions in every marketChance and fair odds

Calculated with our goal model from the market’s prices.

Match result (1X2)

Heart Of Midlothian54%1.86Draw24%4.14Falkirk22%4.51

Double chance

1X78%1.281276%1.32X246%2.16

1X = Heart Of Midlothian or draw · 12 = Heart Of Midlothian or Falkirk · X2 = draw or Falkirk

Draw no bet

Heart Of Midlothian71%1.41Falkirk29%3.42

Over/Under 2.5 goals

Over 2.556%1.80Under 2.544%2.26

Both teams to score

Yes57%1.75No43%2.33

Over/Under 1.5 goals

Over 1.578%1.28Under 1.522%4.52

Over/Under 3.5 goals

Over 3.535%2.90Under 3.565%1.53

Show all markets

Over/Under 0.5 goals

Over 0.594%1.06Under 0.56%17.57

Over/Under 4.5 goals

Over 4.517%5.92Under 4.583%1.20

Home team over 0.5 goals

Over 0.584%1.20Under 0.516%6.10

Home team over 1.5 goals

Over 1.554%1.86Under 1.546%2.16

Away team over 0.5 goals

Over 0.567%1.50Under 0.533%3.02

Away team over 1.5 goals

Over 1.530%3.32Under 1.570%1.43

Home clean sheet

Yes33%3.02No67%1.50

Away clean sheet

Yes16%6.10No84%1.20

Home win to nil

Yes27%3.64No73%1.38

Away win to nil

Yes11%9.35No89%1.12

BTTS and Over 2.5

Yes45%2.23No55%1.81

Handicap home +1

Heart Of Midlothian77%1.29Draw14%7.12Falkirk9%11.76

Handicap home -1

Heart Of Midlothian30%3.32Draw23%4.31Falkirk47%2.14

Odd/even goals

Even51%1.97Odd49%2.04

Correct score

1-111%8.801-010%10.322-110%10.342-09%11.380-16%17.041-26%17.063-16%17.090-06%17.572-26%17.643-05%18.800-23%30.963-23%31.06

Fair odds = 1 ÷ chance. A bookmaker price above the fair odds is value. Beta markets are still being tested.

Premium Today: 0 value tips and 37 high hit rate picks.

Standings

Premiership

Heart Of Midlothian		Falkirk
4.	Position	3.
20	Points	21
12	Played	13
6-2-4	Won-Drawn-Lost	6-3-4
26:22	Goals	20:14
+4	Goal difference	+6
4-1-1	Home record / Away record	3-3-1
LDWLW	Form	WWWWW

Show full table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Celtic	13	10	1	2	28:10	+18	31	WLDWW
2	Rangers	12	8	3	1	21:9	+12	27	WDWDW
3	Falkirk	13	6	3	4	20:14	+6	21	WWWWW
4	Heart Of Midlothian	12	6	2	4	26:22	+4	20	LDWLW
5	Dundee	12	5	2	5	18:15	+3	17	LWLDW
6	Dundee Utd	12	4	5	3	17:17	0	17	DDWDW
7	ST Johnstone	13	4	5	4	17:20	-3	17	WDDLD
8	ST Mirren	13	4	2	7	12:22	-10	14	LLDWL
9	Motherwell	13	3	4	6	15:21	-6	13	DWDLL
10	Hibernian	12	3	2	7	15:17	-2	11	WDLLL
11	Aberdeen	12	3	2	7	12:18	-6	11	LLLWL
12	Kilmarnock	13	2	3	8	13:29	-16	9	LDLLW

Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)Premiership (Relegation Group)

Match Stats

Based on each team’s last 10 matches before this game

69%

Over 2.5

League average: 59%

74%

BTTS

League average: 57%

3.14

Goals per match

League average: 2.81

95%

Over 1.5

All matchesHome / Away

Heart Of MidlothianFalkirk

4	League position	3
20	Points	21
DWLWD	Form	LWWWW
1.89	Points per game	1.7
2.11	Goals scored	1.5
1.67	Goals conceded	1
78%	Over 2.5	60%
78%	BTTS	70%
22%	Clean sheets	30%
0%	Failed to score	0%

WWWD	Form	LDDWW
2.5	Points per game	1.6
2.75	Goals scored	1.2
1	Goals conceded	1
100%	Over 2.5	40%
75%	BTTS	80%
25%	Clean sheets	20%
0%	Failed to score	0%

Head to head (10)

Heart Of Midlothian: 7Draws: 1Falkirk: 2

Goals per match: 2.4 · Over 2.5: 50% · BTTS: 20%

Odds and probabilities

Probabilities are calculated from the average bookmaker odds with the margin removed. They are market numbers, not tips.

1X2

154%1.75

X24%3.89

222%4.24

Double Chance

1X78%1.20

1276%1.22

X246%2.01

BTTS

Yes57%1.63

No43%2.16

Over/Under 1.5

Over78%1.20

Under22%4.23

Over/Under 2.5

Over56%1.68

Under44%2.11

Over/Under 3.5

Over35%2.73

Under65%1.44

Half Time

140%2.26

X39%2.33

221%4.41

NEW

Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk – Match Preview & Analysis

Falkirk beat Heart Of Midlothian 5–2. Heart Of Midlothian are unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 meetings with Falkirk. Before kick-off, Johib ML rated Heart Of Midlothian as the most likely result (45%). The prediction was incorrect.