Genoa vs AC Milan – Prediction & Match Stats

Serie A - Regular Season - 11

Genoa

Match Finished

08 Nov 2026 14:00

AC Milan

1X2 probabilityFrom average bookmaker odds

123%4.05

X29%3.32

248%1.98

Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
Referee: Davide Massa

Match centre

Genoa1 – 2Full timeHalf-time: 0–2

AC Milan

Match events

13'Alphadjo CissèAdrien Rabiot
19'Christian PulisicGonçalo Ramos
28'Sankhoun Diawara
Alessandro Marcandalli50'
50'Adrien Rabiot
61'Omari HutchinsonAlphadjo Cissè
62'Filippo TerraccianoSankhoun Diawara
Tommaso BaldanziJunior Messias62'
Stephan El ShaarawyAlessandro Marcandalli62'
Lorenzo ColomboVítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveira74'
76'Christian Pulisic
79'Ardon JashariChristian Pulisic
Djibril SowHamed Junior Traorè84'
Franz-Ethan MeichtrySamuel Wiafe84'
87'Mario Gila
87'Pervis EstupinanYunus Musah
Mikael EllertssonTommaso Baldanzi88'
Kingsley Ehizibue90+4'

Match statistics

Attack

1.22Expected goals (xG)0.67

17Shots6

5Shots on target2

3Corners0

Control

38%Possession62%

Discipline

14Fouls13

2Yellow cards4

3Offsides1

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Best players

8.1Player of the matchC. PulišićAC Milan

A. Rabiot7.4
A. Cissè7.3

Lineups

Genoa3-4-2-1

Starting XI

1J. BijlowG5.7
22J. VásquezD7.0
5L. ØstigårdD7.1
27A. MarcandalliD5.6
77M. EllertssonM7.0
25H. TraorèM6.1
71S. WiafeM6.4
3K. EhizibueM5.8
9VítinhaM6.1
10Junior MessiasM6.3
18M. OsmajićF6.0

Substitutes (15)

2M. MitajD
4Alexsandro AmorimM
8T. BaldanziM6.4
29L. ColomboF6.6
16C. DramehD
92S. El ShaarawyF6.5
17E. HavelF
11E. MeichtryM6.0
34S. OtoaD
31D. PuczkaD
20S. SabelliD
39D. SommarivaG
97D. SowM5.9
99F. StolzG
76L. VenturinoF

Coach: D. De Rossi

AC Milan3-4-2-1

Starting XI

16M. MaignanG6.9
13S. BocoumD6.4
5K. De WinterD7.0
34Mario GilaD6.7
80Y. MusahM6.4
12A. RabiotM7.4
14L. ModrićM7.1
22Diego MoreiraM6.3
70A. CissèM7.3
11C. PulišićM8.1
9Gonçalo RamosF6.8

Substitutes (10)

33D. BartesaghiD
35V. VladimirovD
41L. P. BouyerG
73F. CamardaF
28C. ComottoM
2P. EstupiñánD6.1
20O. HutchinsonF6.5
30A. JashariM6.6
42F. TerraccianoD6.7
96L. TorrianiG

Coach: Ruben Amorim

Our prediction

Our model in every market AI modelChance and fair odds

Match result (1X2)

Genoa21%4.84Draw22%4.47AC Milan57%1.76

Double chance

1X43%2.321278%1.29X279%1.26

1X = Genoa or draw · 12 = Genoa or AC Milan · X2 = draw or AC Milan

Draw no bet

Genoa27%3.76AC Milan73%1.36

Over/Under 2.5 goals beta

Over 2.559%1.69Under 2.541%2.44

Both teams to score

Yes58%1.73No42%2.38

Over/Under 1.5 goals beta

Over 1.581%1.23Under 1.519%5.29

Over/Under 3.5 goals beta

Over 3.537%2.71Under 3.563%1.58

Show all markets

Over/Under 0.5 goals beta

Over 0.595%1.05Under 0.55%20.88

Over/Under 4.5 goals beta

Over 4.520%5.11Under 4.580%1.24

Home team over 0.5 goals

Over 0.567%1.49Under 0.533%3.02

Away team over 0.5 goals

Over 0.572%1.39Under 0.528%3.55

Home team over 1.5 goals

Over 1.530%3.31Under 1.570%1.43

Away team over 1.5 goals

Over 1.558%1.71Under 1.542%2.40

Home clean sheet

Yes28%3.55No72%1.39

Away clean sheet

Yes33%3.02No67%1.49

Home win to nil beta

Yes9%10.82No91%1.10

Away win to nil beta

Yes28%3.53No72%1.39

BTTS and Over 2.5 beta

Yes47%2.12No53%1.90

Handicap home +1

Genoa43%2.32Draw23%4.33AC Milan34%2.96

Handicap home -1

Genoa8%12.99Draw13%7.72AC Milan79%1.26

Odd/even goals

Even50%2.00Odd50%2.00

Correct score

1-110%9.621-210%10.190-19%11.060-29%11.241-36%15.530-36%17.122-26%17.732-16%18.181-05%19.760-05%20.88

Fair odds = 1 ÷ chance. A bookmaker price above the fair odds is value. Beta markets are still being tested.

Premium Today: 0 value tips and 37 high hit rate picks.

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Who will win?

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Standings

Serie A

Genoa		AC Milan
13.	Position	4.
13	Points	24
11	Played	11
4-1-6	Won-Drawn-Lost	7-3-1
11:16	Goals	23:13
-5	Goal difference	+10
3-1-3	Home record / Away record	3-3-0
LWWWL	Form	WWLWW

Show full table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	25:9	+16	29	DWWWW
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	28:13	+15	28	WLWWW
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	31:10	+21	27	WWWDW
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	23:13	+10	24	WWLWW
5	Como	11	7	2	2	18:10	+8	23	LWWWW
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	24:15	+9	20	LWWDW
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	15:12	+3	18	DWLWL
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	16:14	+2	17	WWWWL
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	10:15	-5	16	WLLLL
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	18:14	+4	15	DLWDL
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	15:17	-2	14	DLLWW
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	17:20	-3	14	WLDDL
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	11:16	-5	13	LWWWL
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	12:22	-10	10	DLLLW
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	17:25	-8	9	DWDLL
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	9:17	-8	8	LWDLL
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	16:29	-13	8	LLLLL
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	17:25	-8	7	LLLLW
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	8:21	-13	6	WLLLW
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	12:25	-13	5	LLDLL

Champions League league stageEuropa League league stagePlay-offsRelegation

Match Stats

Based on each team’s last 10 matches before this game

50%

Over 2.5

League average: 61%

60%

BTTS

League average: 58%

2.85

Goals per match

League average: 3.14

90%

Over 1.5

All matchesHome / Away

GenoaAC Milan

13	League position	4
13	Points	24
WLWWW	Form	DWWLW
1.3	Points per game	2.1
1	Goals scored	2.1
1.4	Goals conceded	1.2
40%	Over 2.5	60%
50%	BTTS	70%
20%	Clean sheets	30%
30%	Failed to score	0%

LDWWW	Form	WDDDW
1.67	Points per game	1.8
1.17	Goals scored	1.6
1.33	Goals conceded	1
33%	Over 2.5	40%
50%	BTTS	80%
33%	Clean sheets	20%
17%	Failed to score	0%

Head to head (10)

Genoa: 0Draws: 3AC Milan: 7

Goals per match: 2.7 · Over 2.5: 60% · BTTS: 60%

Odds and probabilities

Probabilities are calculated from the average bookmaker odds with the margin removed. They are market numbers, not tips.

1X2

123%4.05

X29%3.32

248%1.98

Double Chance

1X52%1.84

1271%1.31

X277%1.23

BTTS

Yes49%1.90

No51%1.82

Over/Under 1.5

Over68%1.38

Under32%2.97

Over/Under 2.5

Over44%2.17

Under56%1.70

Over/Under 3.5

Over24%3.92

Under76%1.24

Half Time

120%4.61

X45%2.05

236%2.57

NEW

Genoa vs AC Milan – Match Preview & Analysis

AC Milan beat Genoa 2–1. Genoa are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with AC Milan. Before kick-off, Johib ML rated the draw as the most likely result (45%). The prediction was incorrect.