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BR Closing line value (CLV)
Closing line value (CLV) measures how the odds you took compare with the closing odds – the price just before kick-off. If you took 2.20 and the fair closing price was 2.00, you beat the closing line by 10 %.
Why it matters
By kick-off the sharpest bookmakers have seen all the money and all the news, so their closing price is the best estimate of the real chance. If you regularly get better odds than that, you are likely to have a real edge – long before your profit shows it. Results swing a lot over a few hundred bets; CLV is a much steadier signal.
How to calculate it
CLV = your odds × fair closing probability − 1. The fair closing probability is the sharp bookmaker's closing price with the margin removed.
Example: you took 2.20. The closing odds are 1.95 and 1.95 in a two-way market. Without margin each side is 50 %. CLV = 2.20 × 0.50 − 1 = +10 %.
What a good CLV looks like
- Beating the close on more than half of your bets.
- An average CLV of a few percent over hundreds of bets.
- Still checking profit over time: CLV is a sign, not a guarantee.
Our own numbers
We publish the CLV of every value tip, win or lose. See every tip and result, and read what a value bet is.
Frequently asked questions
Can I have positive CLV and still lose money?
Yes, over a short run. Over many bets, positive CLV usually turns into profit, but it is never guaranteed.
Which closing odds should I use?
The sharpest market you can find, with the margin removed. Soft bookmakers move late and are a weaker benchmark.
18+. Betting is never a sure thing – only stake what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling.